Marketers’ DIY Guide: Safeguard Your Festive Season Ad Spend from Mobile Ad Fraud
The festive season in India is like a high-stakes battleground for consumer attention, and in 2025 the stakes are even bigger. This year, brands are using all possible strategies with irresistible festive offers. More than ever, AI-powered tools are being used to personalize campaigns, predict shopping behavior, and create highly targeted festive experiences for consumers. Recent reports reveal that digital ad spends are expected to shoot up by 15–25% this year. That’s over ₹60,000 crore expected to be invested (nearly half of the industry’s yearly budget) into the ecosystem in just a few weeks – Dussehra to New Year. Moreover, shoppers are equally excited. 80% of brands plan to increase their festive budget compared to last year, and most of that action will happen on mobile-first platforms. This is the golden time of the year for performance marketers to scale their app performance, boost customer acquisition, and maximize ROI. However, scaling business growth through mobile advertising campaigns during the festive season is not as simple as it might sound. While brands prepare to shine, fraudsters prepare too – to drain festive ad budgets with fake installs, bot-driven clicks, click flooding tactics, event spoofing, etc. And during high-stakes periods, when the competition is even more fierce, even a small leakage can snowball into lost sales and damaged ROI. So, how do you make sure the glowing numbers on your dashboard aren’t just smoke and mirrors? The answer is – by detecting and preventing mobile ad fraud this festive season before it hits your bottom line. TL; DR, what to expect from this article: Why mobile ad fraud spikes during the festive season? A hands-on checklist to spot and block mobile ad fraud The risks of ignoring fraud during festive season How an ad fraud detection solution helps protect performance campaigns? Why Mobile Ad Fraud Peaks During Festive Season? During festive seasons, whether it’s Diwali in India, Ramadan in the Middle East, or Black Friday across global markets, brands significantly increase their marketing investments. And fraudsters follow the money, waiting for chances like these. Moreover, affiliates and media partners also compete aggressively to deliver results in volume. This creates a perfect storm for sophisticated fraud tactics to slip through traditional ways of ad fraud detection. Here’s why fraud peaks during festive campaigns: 1. Festive budgets attract fraudsters When brands increase ad spends during the season, fraudsters see it as the perfect opportunity to grab a bigger portion of ad budgets as compared to normal days. 2. Traffic volumes overload systems With millions of clicks and installs happening in a short span, it becomes tougher to spot which ones are real and which ones are fake without the right app fraud detection strategy in place. 3. Pressure to deliver numbers Affiliates and media partners often push for higher volumes to deliver results on a faster and larger scale often using various methods, which means fraudulent traffic can slip through unchecked. 4.Short and intense campaign timelines Festive campaigns usually run for a few weeks. In the rush to maximize results quickly, marketers don’t always get the time to investigate suspicious activity. 5. Shoppers are more active on mobiles Since most festive shopping now happens on mobile, fraudsters use fake devices, bots, and emulators to mimic real user activity, making fraud harder to catch. The Cost of Ignoring Mobile Ad Fraud During High-stakes Periods like Festive Season Ignoring these red flags can be disastrous for brands running mobile advertising campaigns: Fraudulent traffic consumes budgets that should be driving real festive conversions. Customer acquisition costs also spike as fake installs get counted. Fraud makes campaigns look successful when in reality, genuine reach is limited. Every dollar wasted on fake users is one less spent reaching real shoppers. Poor campaign performance badly on brands and damages affiliate trust. Festive campaigns have short windows, meaning there’s little room for error. But by the time mobile ad fraud is detected, the damage is already done. The DIY Festive Season Mobile Ad Fraud Detection Checklist for Marketers While recognizing sophisticated levels of mobile ad fraud requires an advanced AI-ML-based ad fraud detection solution to be in place, many patterns of fraudulent activities can be identified using simple observation. This DIY checklist is made specifically for marketers to address mobile app fraud, affiliate fraud, and what to watch for: 1. Unusual Click-to-Install Time (CTIT) Patterns Fraudsters flood fake clicks to hijack credit for real installs, distorting CTIT and attribution data, making affiliates look like they are delivering genuine users. Festive Relevance: High install surges make fake CTIT timings harder to spot. Affiliates stuff clicks before festive installs to claim credit. What to Watch For: Installs happening too fast (<10 seconds) often indicate bot-driven installs. Installs delayed too long (>24 hours) indicate click flooding. CTI < 0.1% likely indicates click spamming. 2. Abnormal Post-Install Behavior Fraudulent or fake installs may look valid at first but fail to deliver meaningful engagement or purchases post-install, inflating top-of-funnel numbers while draining budgets. Festive Relevance: Real festive shoppers browse more, add to cart, and purchase. Fraudsters simulate installs or spoof in-app events only to claim payouts. What to Watch For: High installs with shallow sessions or instant exits. Zero meaningful actions like adds-to-cart or purchases. 3. Click Injection and Click Spamming Fraudsters generate fake clicks just before a user installs your app organically, stealing credit from genuine traffic. Festive Relevance: With installs surging, fraudsters have more organic actions to hijack. Affiliates exploit festive urgency to push suspicious click activity. What to Watch For: Affiliates with sudden spikes in attributed installs. Install timelines overlapping heavily with organic traffic. 4. Device Farms and Emulator Traffic Large-scale device farms and emulators simulate fake installs and user activity, tricking attribution systems into marking them as conversions. Festive Relevance: Higher festive payouts make device farms highly profitable. Thousands of fake users can be generated overnight. What to Watch For: Repeated installs from identical OS versions or device models. High device reset rates from the same source. 5. Geo-Mismatch and Proxy
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